By Brian Kilcourse, Managing Partner
February 16, 2010
Gerry Purdy, Ph.D. is the Principal Analyst for MobileTrax LLC, a Florida-based organization that monitors and analyzes emerging trends and technologies in the mobile computing and wireless data communications industry. Purdy holds a Ph.D. from Stanford University and has a deep background in emerging technologies. I worked on a project with Gerry in my pre-RSR days, advising a Silicon Valley venture capital group, and we’ve kept up with each other’s progress ever since.
Dr. Purdy recently commented on the importance of the Apple iPad launch[1], stating that “…the iPad is a new paradigm in computing – it integrates publishing and media in to a mobile platform. In just a few years, sales of the tablet sector will grow to exceed 20 million units a year which would make it a fantastic new $10 billion a year market…. One of the fundamental changes going on in mobile computing & communications is the migration from living in a ‘two mobile device environment’ with most people having a notebook (information creation & personal library) and a cell phone (calls & messaging) to a ‘three mobile device environment’ with most people having a notebook to create and manage content, a tablet for eBook reading and rich media playing (videos, TV, movies), and a cell phone for calling and messaging. There will be many organizations working on integrating information for the three mobile device environment.”
RSR has been focused on the emergence of “mobility” for both employees and consumers for some time, for example, warning retailers that “consumer adoption of new technologies is accelerating… Mobile Commerce is a known future requirement ….”[2] But as RSR partner Nikki Baird noted in RSR’s January 19 Retail Paradox Weekly review of the annual NRF “Big Show”: “as exciting as this channel is, and as big as its potential may be, there is still a long way to go before it is an integrated part of the consumer's shopping experience. But there's one thing retailers can rely on: consumers will drive the adoption, and do so at a speed that retailers will find very difficult to match.”
So the question is, does Apple’s announcement of the iPad have the potential to cause that breakthrough that so many have been predicting? That’s the question that we put to Dr. Purdy last week in a telephone interview.
The Emergence of the Three-Mobile-Device Environment
According to Dr. Purdy, “the whole issue comes down to ‘what do people spend their time doing and how does technology support the activities that are conducted during a day in the life of John Q. Public’. We’ve seen the emergence of three primary ‘screens’: a television screen, a computer screen, and a phone screen. The computer has migrated toward the notebook - a clamshell widescreen design whose primary benefit is that it’s mobile. So now the world has a two-mobile environment: phones and computers.”
Inevitably, technology companies have tried to blend those two mobile devices into one (witness the new Blackberry Bold, whose single most important feature might be the Zoom capability for its net browser). But, says the technologist, “the challenge you have in this situation is that the small screen/small processor phone-class device doesn’t have a great experience for multi-media, doesn’t have a great experience for comparative information (such as comparative shopping), and doesn’t have a great experience for visual interaction – you can see things, but it isn’t enjoyable.”
On the other hand, the notebook is what Dr. Purdy calls “site-to-site portable”, i.e. it isn’t truly a carry-around device. What people do with notebooks is carry their “office” to a new location – to home, to the airport, etc. “There really hasn’t been the right combination of size, visual experience, user interface, technology and technical capability, in a tablet-style device until just recently (with Apple’s launch of the iPad)”, says the industry observer. Although devices like the Kindle or the Nook (Ed. note: see Paula Rosenblum’s A Nook is Not a Book in this newsletter) serve as a “marker” for people who want an everyday device that’s bigger than a phone but smaller than a notebookthat provides a real benefit, the iPad represents a paradigm shift, according to Dr. Purdy. “The paradigm shift isn’t just because Apple did it- they’ve created something that moves from just being a tablet device to read books to something with true multi-media capabilities. It’s an e-book reader when it’s held vertically, and a multi-media device when held horizontally.”
So What, You Say?
According to the mobile technology observer, it’s hard to say how big the market for devices like the iPad and its inevitable competition from Google and Microsoft will be, or even how long it will take to mature. But, says Purdy, it will gain wide acceptance, simply because it solves a problem – it allows people to enjoy true multimedia in a mobile way.”If you look out – perhaps five years – the three devices will be a part of everyday living”, says Dr. Purdy, “you’ll have a clamshell device that will act as your personal server, a small thing that you do talking and messaging on, and a carry-around device that will become a sort of personal companion.”
There are obvious implications for mobile shopping applications on such a device (“They probably already exist”, muses Purdy), because people will take the device when they go places –such as the store. But what’s good for consumers is also good for employees. Dr. Purdy offers this scenario: “Mary’s on the left – she’s an associate at Nordstrom. John is on the right – he’s a consumer. Both of them have iPads, and Mary can pull up not only all the information available on norstrom.com, but all the information from John’s profile, so that she can ‘coach’ or facilitate John’s purchase decisions, and she can even look up how much inventory the store has on-hand, and if there are special offers available for John. John on his part can be comparing the items that Mary suggests with similar items at Macy’s. The justification for having this kind of capability is that it is useful– you won’t leave the device in the car. It becomes an extension of the ‘my Nordstrom’ experience and it provides you with competitive information.”
Towards an Active Publishing Paradigm
The real change has to do with the nature of the information that that people can see, according to the technologist. “Kindle is based on a static ‘paper’ paradigm – you download a book and read it. The page may change but the content doesn’t change. With the iPad, we’ll move from static to active, using multi-media to provide really useful information that guides people. For example, location mapping in a mall, showing promotions, and matching it to a consumer’s shopping list – that’s active.”
That ultimately is the shift that introduction of the iPad triggers - the move towards a kinetic format that blends information in a way that’s entertaining and useful – and does it in such a way that people won’t want to be without it.
[1] Inside Mobile, MobileTrax LLC, 1/27/2010
[2] Cross-channel Retailing for the Anytime, Anywhere Consumer, RSR, February 2009
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