By Brian Kilcourse, Managing Partner
11/27/2007
The day after Thanksgiving has been a watchful day for me since getting into the retail business some 30 years ago, but not a day to shop. For years now, I’ve gone to the local shopping hotspots to watch the crowds – are they bigger than last year? Is the mood upbeat or downbeat? Are the stores overstocked or picked over? What are the hot items? Is there enough help on the floor? How’s parking? What’s the road-rage meter saying?
So it was with a bit of trepidation that I took up Nikki Baird’s challenge to actually go out and buy something on the #1 shopping day of the year. My mood wasn’t enhanced by early morning news coverage of wild crowds dashing through the doors of Macy’s NY and SF. So I decided to wait until the afternoon to start my shopping day, when sanity would hopefully have returned to the madding crowd.
Nordstroms, Walnut Creek, 2:30 PM. I knew Walnut Creek was “on the map” a few years ago when CNN had a “woman on the street” interview for the after-Christmas shopping rush. The town has become a destination shop for people from all over the SF East Bay area, with shops like H&M, Chico’s, Tiffany’s, Eileen Fisher, Betsy John, La Coste, J.Crew, Cole Haan, Coach, and other high end brands. Once again, I noticed a mobile TV truck on the street, getting ready for the 6 O’clock news. Nordstroms anchors the Plaza, and I expected manic traffic, but instead found a parking spot within a stone’s throw of the building. The store itself was crowded in the cosmetics section, with people buying the holiday gift sets (we bought two for our daughters, just as we do every year). When I asked a counter clerk, “how’s business,” she replied, “we’re all here today, and we really expected more customers. We’re kinda’ twiddling our thumbs.” Nordstroms famed shoe section wasn’t all that busy; the women’s section was crowded with tall racks of what were obviously overstock items left over from the half-yearly sale, and the men’s section had one special-purchase “while quantities last” item that I could find. In the Men’s clothing section, the aisle tables that usually display special purchase items were instead stocked with pricey cashmere sweaters and shirts. The items were stacked to “look” like a bargain table, but obviously were not picked over- there were items in every size. Upstairs in the Sportswear section, there was decent, but not overwhelming traffic. Netting it Out: Nordstroms is sticking with their program, with a few well chosen traffic builders, and making sure there’s plenty of help. Although we saw more Nordstroms bags in people’s hands than any other retailer’s, the store itself didn’t look overly crowded.
Gap, Walnut Creek, 3 PM. The Gap mailed a 20%-off coupon to our house (not anonymous, but to our family specifically), for “any purchase over $75.” Coupon in hand and in control, we descended on the store knowing exactly what we wanted- wool sweaters. The lead-in top advertised items were in plain view, well stocked in all colors and sizes. These weren’t special-purchase items, just nice, quality merchandise, reasonably priced. There were a few special-purchase items sprinkled throughout the store, but there certainly wasn’t a “bargain” feel to the sales floor. Employees were working the tables, keeping everything neat and presentable. As with Nordstroms, the place wasn’t jammed; three of the six registers available were staffed. Netting it Out: The Gap may have hit the ball out of the park (finally!). The styles were good, prices very reasonable, and the incentive was perfect! The store was well staffed and a had a fresh “open or business” feel to it, even at 3 PM on the busiest shopping day of the year at one of the Bay Area’s busiest shopping centers. The Crème de la Crème – later that evening, we found another 10% coupon for the Gap in the morning’s paper, which I’m sure will get used up.
Target, Walnut Creek, 6 PM. Target is referred to as “Targét” in this town, and is hugely popular to a consumer group that probably wouldn’t get caught dead in a Wal-Mart. It being the end of the day, we frankly expected the store to be seriously picked over, especially in Electronics and Toys. The very first thing we noticed is that they had about ½ of the 26 checkout lanes staffed – not bad for dinner time! Just as we walked on to the selling floor, we found our first bargain of the night, the just-released DVDs of “Ratatouille” and “Shrek the Third” for $14 (compared to $29.95 at Barnes & Noble) – our 1st impulse buy of the day. Oddly, just in front of the Children’s Clothing section, the merchant had stacked special-purchase boxes of Black & Decker vacuum cleaners, George Forman grilles, and Turbo Hockey games in the aisle, and these looked untouched (in fact, employees were getting ready to return them to the stock room). Once in the clothing section, there were lots of end-cap “Friday and Saturday Only” special items very aggressively priced ($3.33, $5, $7.99. etc.). The shelves looked neat and tidy, and there seemed to be more staffers than customers (of course, it was dinner time!), handling go-backs. In Electronics, there weren’t a whole lot of discounted items, and the TV’s were definitely not on sale. In the Toy section, however, it was an entirely different story. This section of the store was the most heavily promotion driven and also the most heavily trafficked. I guess-timated that one-of-three items were either marked “Sale” or “Temporary Price Reduction.” Target staffers were re-stocking items as fast as customers were grabbing them, and there were baskets-full of go-backs to be processed. The place looked pretty picked over but not trashed. There were a lot Target employees performing merchandising tasks using their wireless handheld scanners, keeping the aisles neat. As we checked out, I asked the clerk how the day had gone. “You know, it wasn’t all that busy today,” she said, “this morning was, and pretty much all the employees are here. Everybody expected it to be busier that it was, but we have a two day sale, so maybe tomorrow….” Netting it Out: Target will go the way their toy sales go.
How in-the-black will retailers be after Black Friday? A few thoughts come to mind: first, customers weren’t going wild. Instead, they seemed focused, and generally staying away from the impulse items stacked in the aisles. Secondly, retailers weren’t going wild either. I didn’t sense any panic-driven price cutting. Nowhere did I see out-of-stocks, and everywhere I looked I saw plenty of staff ready to help. Service seemed to be a key focus for every retailer we visited. It will be interesting to see if retailers over-inventoried when the quarter results get tallied, and whether or not labor costs were up. Technology note: I didn’t see ANY line busting technologies being employed.
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