By Paula Rosenblum, Managing Partner
11/27/2007
I must give credit where credit is due. My colleagues ventured out into the crowds on Black Friday to give our readers a report on traffic and potential issues around the country. Nikki drew the line on “door busters,” which gives me renewed faith in her common sense. Me, I couldn’t bear the idea of going anywhere on Black Friday, what to speak of the Aventura Mall (the closest significant mall to my house). Heck, why would a Jewish girl go shopping on Black Friday anyway? It’s not in my DNA.
The sales results: Flash sales are telling us that Black Friday was a top-line winner. Reports range of total increases of between 8 and 10% over 2006. On the surface, if one believes the media, retailers have dodged a bullet and enticed the consumer out to their stores with promises of low prices and Nintendo Wii’s. But did retailers simply trade one day’s sales for another? Here I am, your Grinch… reporting, yes, it seems they did. Friday may have been solidly Black… but Saturday was less than I, at least, expected. Personal observation leads me to think of it as “gray.” Enticed by the possibility of picking out jewelry for my upcoming birthday, I was lured out into the thick of it on Saturday. Off to Aventura we went!
First stop: the International Jewelry Exchange – which is really a series of independently owned stalls, much like a Middle Eastern Bazaar, with new and vintage jewelry. Very low tech, very simple, and very empty. I got my bling (YAY!), and made friends with the Israeli family who sold it to us (note: those of you thinking of buying jewelry any time soon, pay careful attention: the phrase “The price of gold is quite high these days” extends beyond the price of bullion). The last time I was at the Exchange, I found out that most of the independent merchants there now make their money selling the same jewelry on eBay. That explains the lack of stress in the place. People were relaxing, chatting. No hard sells. Their business was working for them elsewhere. Or maybe they’re just gearing up for Cyber-Monday.
The store closest to the Exchange is Old Navy. I peeked in. No more crowded than an average Saturday, but with check-out lines better planned.
Then, in a statement of gratitude for my gift-bling, I agreed to go into the belly of the beast. We headed to the movie theater IN the Aventura Mall itself. I had no idea what to expect. Police were out directing traffic around the soon-to-be-completed new Nordstrom. I briefly pondered why this Nordstrom is set to open on February 15. Would real estate management software have enabled them to open sooner? Did the company consciously avoid ½ Miami’s high season for a reason? Found a parking place easily enough for late afternoon on a Saturday. Bought our tickets at an AMC kiosk (these things are a GREAT invention, especially since most people don’t recognize which are available and which aren’t, so there’s rarely any waiting), had a late lunch in a lightly trafficked sushi bar, and slipped right in to see the movie. The movie was over at around 8, and we easily got out of the parking lot, onto almost empty Biscayne Boulevard and headed home.
So, I offer you several possibilities: 1) door-busters and scarce items front-loaded sales. Sales will now slow down until the serious markdown chicken that will occur the last week before the holiday, 2) Retailers and roadways have become so efficient that I didn’t even notice how many people were really out shopping, 3) Traffic may not have been high, but average transaction was up (God knows, that was true of my bling experience…we dropped a lot of money during that cheerful little conversation about Miami Beach’s Hannukah train),or 4) Weekend shopping was deferred to Cyber-Monday, when for some unfathomable reason, employers are delighted to have their employees spend the day shopping at work (I’ve got to be kidding, right?).
My bottom line – I think it’s a combination of all the above. Anxious consumers need to get more bang for their buck this holiday season, so the door busters had unusual appeal. I’m HOPING that improved technology has made the shopping experience easier (like my purchase of movie tickets), and Cyber-Monday has its own sales and deals ready to fly. If I had to place a bet, I’d go with front-loading.
I only missed one thing. Along with bling, I really wanted a Wii. Apparently for one of those, I would have had to sit on the door-buster lines. Now, if I want one, I’ll have to spend double on eBay. Guess what? I can wait. I have faith in the supply chain. They’ll be coming ‘round in January or so.
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