By Nikki Baird, Managing Partner
9/1/2009
It seems that the most certain indicator that the future will have "arrived" is not anything to do with the internet or related technologies. It's the flying car. Most often I hear it in the negative, as in "It's 2009 - where are the flying cars?" Apparently, the future isn't here yet.
As much as I would love to see flying cars in the future (as long as it leads away from a future of "sky jams" and "air rage"), I feel that this is a pretty high bar to set for defining when we've moved beyond "current" and into the future. So when I stumbled across an article on Mobile Marketer that asked a handful of industry executives about what the future of mobile looks like, I was intrigued - especially when the picture they used to go with the article showed someone holding up a mobile device against a skyline and getting information overlaid onto the screen - a clear intersection between the physical world and virtual world that seems the ideal space for the future of mobile.
However, when you read the article, there is lots of gushing about how the industry looks a lot like internet advertising did in 1999 - on the cusp of something big.
Oh wait. That's for SMS.
What? Really? The future of mobile is SMS? I'm sorry - maybe I'm overexposed, but to me that's like saying the future of the automotive industry is Oldsmobile. Haven't we already done that? I understand that SMS as a marketing tool is still in its infancy, but with smart phones and app stores and all of the rich experiences that can be delivered via phones, this is the future? SMS?
To be fair, not everyone in the article said that, and iPhones and app stores - even the bridge between physical and virtual (thank you, Scott Dunlap of NearbyNow for bringing something actually forward-looking to the comments) - were mentioned. But there was one thing conspicuously absent from the list: commerce. As in mobile payments.
And then on the same day, I saw an article about how Nokia is going to launch a payments initiative that will allow people to transfer money to each other using their phones - without the need for bank accounts. And how this will be available not just on Nokia phones, but on just about every kind of phone. This is encouraging, because at least it is a step away from waiting for carriers to get around to it. However, delving in the details reveals there is not much in the way of details - how will this work? How does money get credited? Who "owns" the accounts? No clues are made available. How will VISA and MasterCard get their slice, as they seem to get out of virtually every virtual exchange of money?
So I have a new way of measuring when the future has arrived. Forget flying cars. I just want a mobile wallet. And by the way, if you are able to link physical and virtual with commerce - all on one device - now we're talking about a far more interesting future for mobile than just SMS.
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